Time
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Address
Room 464, UNSW Business School, UNSW
Description
August 28, 2018: Joshua Miller
Topic: The Hot Hand Fallacy Fallacy
Abstract:
The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications for economics and finance. We uncover a subtle, but critical, statistical bias that invalidates previous evidence supporting the hot hand fallacy in its canonical domain, basketball shooting. We re-assess and re-analyze basketball shooting and betting data. We find that the hot hand exists, and that players can bet on it successfully.
Topic: The Hot Hand Fallacy Fallacy
Abstract:
The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications for economics and finance. We uncover a subtle, but critical, statistical bias that invalidates previous evidence supporting the hot hand fallacy in its canonical domain, basketball shooting. We re-assess and re-analyze basketball shooting and betting data. We find that the hot hand exists, and that players can bet on it successfully.
About Joshua:
Joshua Miller is visiting from the University of Alicante. He is doing very interesting work on the hot-hand and gambler’s fallacy and related problems. (Econometrica had the good sense to recently accept a key paper in his series of papers with Adam Sanjurjo for publication.)